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- <text id=93HT1091>
- <title>
- 68 Election: SALT I:Slowing Down the Arms Race
- </title>
- <history>
- TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1968 Election
- </history>
- <article>
- <source>Time Magazine</source>
- <hdr>
- June 5, 1972
- SALT I
- Slowing Down the Arms Race
- </hdr>
- <body>
- <p> Despite the justifiable fanfare in Moscow over the U.S.-
- Soviet agreements on limiting strategic nuclear weapons, the
- summit signing was, except for a few last-minute technical
- hitches, mainly a formality. The details had been worked out in
- tough, painstaking but nonpolemical SALT negotiations extending
- over 2 1/2 years. Through some 130 separate meetings, alternating
- between Helsinki and Vienna, the talks were often deadlocked and
- agreement seemed improbable. But in the end, both sides showed a
- realistic willingness to compromise. The result should be a
- historic slowdown in the costly and dangerous arms race. It does
- not end that race, however, and even more painful bargaining lies
- ahead.
- </p>
- <p> In broad perspective, the agreements formalized the U.S.
- shift from the Eisenhower-Kennedy insistence upon "nuclear
- superiority" to what the Nixon Administration terms "nuclear
- sufficiency." Since the Soviet Union was intent upon reaching at
- least parity with the U.S. and since both sides possess a
- tremendous overkill capability, the new U.S. stance makes sound
- sense. In agreeing that defensive missiles will be limited to two
- sites in each nation and that no more offensive ballistic
- missiles will be installed, the U.S. risks little; the "balance
- of terror" will not be upset to the advantage of either side.
- </p>
- <p> The initial impasse came when the Soviet negotiators wanted
- to tackle limits on defensive systems first; the U.S. insisted
- that offensive and defensive weapons should not be considered
- separately. Later, the Russians demanded that some 600 U.S.
- aircraft carrying tactical nuclear weapons from bases in Europe
- or with the Sixth Fleet be classed as offensive systems, since
- they could strike the U.S.S.R. But Moscow regarded its own
- tactical nukes, capable of reaching NATO forces in Europe, as
- defensive. The U.S. finally agreed to discuss ABMs first, and the
- Russians agreed to exclude short-range nuclear weapons from the
- freeze on offensive systems.
- </p>
- <p> Freeze. The ABM treaty allows each nation one defensive
- installation at an ICBM site and one at its capital, with a
- maximum of 100 missiles at each location. Thus the U.S. will be
- able to complete its Safeguard ABM facility near Grand Forks,
- N. Dak., but must discontinue the other one it is building near
- Montana's Malmstrom Air Force Base. New appropriations would be
- required for an ABM array around Washington. The Soviet Union
- already has ABMs protecting Moscow; where it will place its
- second site is not known.
- </p>
- <p> On the surface, the freeze on offensive weapons looks like a
- Soviet gain. The executive agreement will permit the U.S.S.R. to
- hold a lead (1,618 to 1,054) in land-based ICBMs. It will be
- allowed to overtake the U.S., by an insignificant single vessel,
- in nuclear-missile submarines (42 to 41), since Russia will be
- permitted to complete 17 such subs.
- </p>
- <p> The agreement allows some shifting in the particular mix of
- land- and sea-based ICBMs each nation wishes to deploy, so long
- as the total number of missiles is not affected. But it says
- nothing at all about how many warheads each missile can contain.
- Therein lies a huge advantage for the U.S., at least for now.
- Since the U.S. has missiles that carry up to ten independently
- targeted warheads (MIRVs) and these systems are far ahead of the
- Soviet multiple warheads, which fall in a cluster but cannot be
- individually directed (MRVs), the U.S. maintains an overwhelming
- edge of 5,700 to 2,500 in warheads.
- </p>
- <p> Warhead Gap. There is not, however, any limitation on
- improving existing ICBMs under the executive agreement. Thus the
- arms race is expected to turn to qualitative rather than
- quantitative efforts. U.S. experts estimate that it will take the
- Russians until the late 70s to develop and deploy MIRV missiles
- and thus close the warhead gap--if the U.S. stops further MIRV
- deployment. The U.S., meanwhile, is free to go ahead with
- advances like its ULMS longer-range submarine-launched missile
- system, which involves at least ten advanced subs with 24
- missiles each. Both sides are expected to spend heavily on
- observation satellites to detect any cheating by the other. They
- can also spend heavily, if they wish, on new nuke-carrying
- bombers. As both nations continue to spar for technical
- advantages, no immediate savings in weapons costs are expected.
- </p>
- <p> New SALT negotiations, tagged SALT II, are expected to begin
- soon. They will concentrate at first on putting the offensive
- weapons agreement into treaty form. Then the Russians will
- undoubtedly renew their demand that U.S. tactical nukes in Europe
- be limited; the U.S. will resist. The U.S. may also demand some
- limitation on the megatonnage of ICBMs. The U.S.S.R. has shown a
- preference for far bigger bombs than the U.S.; it is known to be
- working on a 50-megaton missile (the biggest U.S. weapon is the
- 5- to 10-megaton Titan II). Toughest of all will be any attempts
- to write detailed limits on the improvement of existing weapons,
- especially since such changes are difficult to detect without on-
- site inspection--something the Kremlin has always adamantly
- opposed.
- </p>
- <p> The key to future progress in arms limitation may well be
- the confidence each nation has in its ability to detect
- violations by the other. Both have agreed on an "open skies"
- policy of non-interference with observation satellites. These are
- becoming increasingly sophisticated, but whether they can detect
- how many warheads hide within a missile may remain an uncertainty
- beclouding the outcome of SALT II.
- </p>
-
- </body>
- </article>
- </text>
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